{"id":"energy-forecast-boundaries","level":"infrastructure","name":"Energy forecasts, geography and measurement boundaries","shortName":"Energy forecasts, geography and measurement boundaries","role":"Distinguishes estimated electricity use from conditional demand projections.","description":"Electricity demand reports combine observations, estimates and scenarios. A global all-data-center forecast includes many uses beyond AI, while an AI-focused subset requires its own definition. The IEA’s April 2026 update and LBNL’s June 2026 US report differ in geography, publication timing and methodology. Their totals cannot be added or treated as competing measurements of the same scope. Historical forecast revisions are useful evidence about changing assumptions, but an older projection should not silently replace a newer one. Power is an instantaneous rate; annual energy integrates changing load, including non-IT overhead when the report’s boundary includes it.","specs":[{"label":"Units","value":"MW power and MWh/TWh energy","context":"1 TWh equals one million MWh; time is essential."},{"label":"Status","value":"Estimated baseline versus forecast scenario","context":"Both need source date, observation year and scope."}],"interfaces":[{"name":"Metering, shipment and scenario inputs","direction":"in","signal":"Defined geography, device mix and operating assumptions"},{"name":"Demand estimate or forecast","direction":"out","signal":"Scoped energy with period and uncertainty"}],"tradeoff":"Broader forecasts help planning but hide local grid and workload constraints; granular estimates need more uncertain input data.","whyAI":"AI buildout affects electricity systems, but no annual energy total provides a universal conversion into model throughput or capability.","related":["rack-dynamic-power","water-boundary-accounting","grid-interconnection-readiness"],"sources":[{"title":"Key Questions on Energy and AI: Executive Summary","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary"},{"title":"United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update","url":"https://bies.lbl.gov/publications/united-states-data-center-energy-2025"}],"scale":"Facility phases to region and world; geography schematic","kind":"architecture","branch":"Global AI infrastructure","subbranch":"Global evidence and resource accounting","mechanism":["Identify the report date, geography and whether AI is the whole scope or a subset.","Separate estimated historical demand from projected future demand.","Check whether the measure includes cooling and other facility loads.","Compare revisions only after aligning definitions and explaining changed assumptions.","Keep local deliverability and useful workload capacity separate from broad annual electricity totals."],"misconception":"A global data-center forecast is not an AI-only measurement, and a 2030 scenario is not observed consumption.","check":{"question":"Why can a US report not be added to a global total?","options":["US electricity uses different physical units","Forecasts can never discuss regions","The global scope already includes the United States"],"answer":2,"explanation":"The geographies overlap, so adding them double-counts the US contribution."},"science":[{"title":"Energy from average power","equation":"E = Pavg × Δt","explanation":"Pavg in GW and Δt in hours gives GWh; divide by 1,000 for TWh.","assumptions":"Average must cover the same interval and boundary; installed or contracted peak power is not Pavg."}],"prerequisites":["rack-dynamic-power"],"learningObjective":"Read a dated demand forecast without confusing geography, AI scope or power and energy.","workstream":"W10","visualFamily":"world-network","engineeringExample":"Synthetic constant 1 GW load over 8,760 hours uses 8.76 TWh. A 1 GW nameplate facility does not necessarily use that energy because its average operating load can be lower.","evidenceNotes":"IEA baseline and projection are separate claim records. LBNL’s laboratory abstract was retrieved; inaccessible full-report methodology is not represented as independently rechecked.","labId":"library","scope":"No current calculator directly models this lesson’s main mechanism. Use the library for related bounds while retaining their stated omissions.","investigationId":"manufacturing","labScope":"No current calculator directly models this lesson’s main mechanism. Use the library for related bounds while retaining their stated omissions."}